#Crypto market views
Past:
- Crypto experienced the largest bubble in financial markets' history.
- Bubble caused by retail euphoria, crypto virality, large players front-running CME futures open, and potentially market manipulation (i.e. USDT).
- Crypto experienced the largest bubble in financial markets' history.
- Bubble caused by retail euphoria, crypto virality, large players front-running CME futures open, and potentially market manipulation (i.e. USDT).
Past:
- There's evidence of market manipulation, fake volume, pump-and-dump schemes, and shilling of vaporware by well known crypto promoters.
- Market crashed as inflow of new investors dwindled and regulators worldwide started an onslaught.
- There's evidence of market manipulation, fake volume, pump-and-dump schemes, and shilling of vaporware by well known crypto promoters.
- Market crashed as inflow of new investors dwindled and regulators worldwide started an onslaught.
Present:
- Most crypto is vaporware (aka *hitcoins).
- Retail investors got burnt.
- Large players, early investors, and crypto developers and founders dumped on retail (e.g. LTC's creator SatoshiLite).- HODL is the most damaging meme in history. The result of getting financial advice from those who don't know about finance and/or benefit financially from hodlers. (i.e. misaligned incentives).Institutional investors have not "arrived" as a result of the bubble, lack of custody solutions, and inability to quantify a value proposition.Hyperbitconization is not a logical value proposition.
- Most crypto is vaporware (aka *hitcoins).
- Retail investors got burnt.
- Large players, early investors, and crypto developers and founders dumped on retail (e.g. LTC's creator SatoshiLite).- HODL is the most damaging meme in history. The result of getting financial advice from those who don't know about finance and/or benefit financially from hodlers. (i.e. misaligned incentives).Institutional investors have not "arrived" as a result of the bubble, lack of custody solutions, and inability to quantify a value proposition.Hyperbitconization is not a logical value proposition.
Current miners are still profitable ex-amortization (i.e. sunk costs).
There's plenty of room below until miners start turning rigs off.
Key Themes:
- potential rat race to the bottom as ICOs (and some exchanges) sell holdings to cover present and future operational costs vs is price low enough to entice some large institutional investor to go in big.
- potential rat race to the bottom as ICOs (and some exchanges) sell holdings to cover present and future operational costs vs is price low enough to entice some large institutional investor to go in big.
- Markets reverse in three ways:
.following capitulation (e.g. Dec/22/17).
.following a strong trend-setting upwards break (e.g. Apr/12/18).
.by slowly rolling over.
- Capitulation makes buying into a reversal "easy". A rolling-over reversal is the toughest.
Price:
Bitcoin crashed hard in the last month, yet market has not seen capitulation yet. Market direction is uncertain.Trying to figure where will the market stop falling, its bottom, is beyond fruitless. Those charting and calling bottoms are best ignored.BTC has extremely well defined resistance areas.
- Books are so empty and volume so low that a whale can make a >5% pop/drop within a few hours.
- I'd expect more 2-way action now and still lower lows eventually.
- Wouldn't be surprised to see 8200 within weeks.
Bitcoin crashed hard in the last month, yet market has not seen capitulation yet. Market direction is uncertain.Trying to figure where will the market stop falling, its bottom, is beyond fruitless. Those charting and calling bottoms are best ignored.BTC has extremely well defined resistance areas.
- Books are so empty and volume so low that a whale can make a >5% pop/drop within a few hours.
- I'd expect more 2-way action now and still lower lows eventually.
- Wouldn't be surprised to see 8200 within weeks.
Future:
- A $BTC ETF will launch, making crypto go viral again.
- Security tokens will go mainstream.
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- A $BTC ETF will launch, making crypto go viral again.
- Security tokens will go mainstream.
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thanks fore reading.follow on twitter @ https://twitter.com/naval
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